Macro positive, short-term, frequent ore prices spring up
According to the iron ore price index of the business cooperative, the iron ore price has risen sharply since November, showing a volatile upward trend. As of the 15th, the iron ore price of the business cooperative was 734.11 yuan/wet ton, and the iron ore price has risen 10.36% so far, as shown in the figure above. The main reason for the recent sharp rise in iron ore price is that the good news at the macro level at home and abroad has stimulated the iron ore futures price to strengthen significantly, driving the spot price to form a phenomenon of futures and current resonance.
After the expected demand for iron ore was released in October, the market turned to be optimistic about the far month. The price of iron ore in the far month was relatively stronger, the price difference of iron ore was narrowing, the basis was shrinking, and the margin of overall transaction demand was stronger. However, the US inflation data in October was lower than expected, and the market expected that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates would weaken. Many hedge funds who bet that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in December quickly closed most of their long positions in US dollars, causing the US dollar index to quickly fall back to around 106.5. The sharp drop in the US dollar index has enabled speculative funds to return to emerging markets. As futures prices continue to hype up, the speculative atmosphere in the domestic iron ore market has warmed up, and spot prices have also rebounded with the rise, forming a phenomenon of periodic resonance.
In terms of macro news, the 20 measures for optimizing epidemic prevention in China were first announced, and then the People's Bank of China and the Insurance Regulatory Commission of the Bank of China issued a notice on doing a good job in the current work of financial support for the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, which made the market form a certain expectation of the bottom of the real estate market, there was also an expectation of the release of iron ore demand in the later period, and also provided some support for the rise of iron ore prices.
At present, the key to the ore price game is whether the steel mills will continue to reduce production or will reduce their efforts. In particular, the current price of iron ore has risen sharply, but the fundamentals of iron ore spot are still not optimistic:
On the supply side, as of November 14, the total amount of iron ore shipped worldwide was 28.209 million tons, a month on month decrease of 2.823 million tons; The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Brazil, Australia reached 23.587 million tons, a month on month decrease of 2.662 million tons. The volume from Australia to China was 15.551 million tons, a month on month decrease of 1.188 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 6.339 million tons, with a link increase of 467000 tons. The overseas shipment volume fluctuates periodically. However, the recent sharp rise in iron ore prices has stimulated the enthusiasm of overseas miners to deliver. The general direction of iron ore supply recovery in the fourth quarter has not changed. It is expected that iron ore supply in the fourth quarter will continue to maintain a strong trend.
